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Friday, 4 November 2016

RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

With only few days remaining before Americans cast their votes for president the race has settled back into a tight contest, according to the very latest polls released by New York Times/CBS News. The momentum appears to be with Mr Trump, who has joked about having to stay on message, as the final weekend of campaigning approaches. He has capitalized on a new FBI investigation into a Clinton aide's email, gaining ground on Mrs Clinton in a number of swing states, including Florida and North Carolina, according to polls. Some national tracker polls are now suggesting the two candidates are neck-and-neck. However, the average national poll still shows Hillary Clinton holding an edge over him .CBS news reveals a narrow margin between the candidates, 45 percent of likely voters support Mrs. Clinton while 42 percent support Donald Trump. 
The difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. According to the pollster, some significant number of voters say they may still change their minds about whom they will support on Tuesday, as per now both candidates have approximately equal support among their party’s voters. Analysis of early voting returns suggests black voters may not be turning out in the kinds of numbers they did for Obama in 2012, signaling a big blow to Hillary who has been banking on these blacks and other minorities to boost her chances of winning the elections. History shows that political independents, which backed President Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, in 2012, are currently split, a scenario which is likely to complicate this election. And at this point in the 2012 campaign, Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney were deadlocked in polling averages, but Obama went on to win the election by a four-point margin meaning even this 2016 elections is not pre-determined, it could go either way. 
Americans are facing a similar scenario as in 2012; even Democrats admit that the race is tightening; Trump has some momentum after a rough week for Clinton. If the race does become a tie, there's a real chance that the person with the most votes may not become President. Almost everybody agree that  the poll experts in UK didn’t see Brexit coming, so Clinton's lead in these fields by no means guarantees her the keys back the white house. There is much speculation that like the EU referendum in the UK  pollsters in US could be very much wrong.

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